Development and external validation of prediction models for critical outcomes of unvaccinated COVID-19 patients based on demographics, medical conditions and dental status.

Background: Multiple prediction models were developed for critical outcomes of COVID-19. However, prediction models using predictors which can be easily obtained in clinical practice and on dental status are scarce. Aim: The study aimed to develop and externally validate prediction models for critical outcomes of COVID-19 for unvaccinated adult patients in hospital settings based on demographics, medical conditions, and dental status. Methods: A total of 285 and 352 patients from two hospitals in the Netherlands were retrospectively included as derivation and validation cohorts. Demographics, medical conditions, and dental status were considered potential predictors. The critical outcomes (death and ICU admission) were considered endpoints. Logistic regression analyses were used to develop two models: for death alone and for critical outcomes. The performance and clinical values of the models were determined in both cohorts. Results: Age, number of teeth, chronic kidney disease, hypertension, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases were the significant independent predictors. The models showed good to excellent calibration with observed: expected (O:E) ratios of 0.98 (95%CI: 0.76 to 1.25) and 1.00 (95%CI: 0.80 to 1.24), and discrimination with shrunken area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.85 and 0.79, based on the derivation cohort. In the validation cohort, the models showed good to excellent discrimination with AUC values of 0.85 (95%CI: 0.80 to 0.90) and 0.78 (95%CI: 0.73 to 0.83), but an overestimation in calibration with O:E ratios of 0.65 (95%CI: 0.49 to 0.85) and 0.67 (95%CI: 0.52 to 0.84). Conclusion: The performance of the models was acceptable in both derivation and validation cohorts. Number of teeth was an additive important predictor of critical outcomes of COVID-19. It is an easy-to-apply tool in hospitals for risk stratification of COVID-19 prognosis.

Post-Operative Bleeding Complications in a Periodontitis Patient Testing Positive for COVID-19.

Recent scientific evidence states that a subset of COVID-19 patients may have a risk of increased bleeding tendency. This case report presents a healthy 38-year-old woman with generalized stage III, grade C periodontitis with an abnormal post-operative blood clot formation who tested positive for COVID-19 after a standard periodontal surgery. Previously, two periodontal surgeries proceeded without any complications and were considered standard. On day one after the third periodontal surgery the patient had no complaints. On day two the patient reported excess bleeding in the oral cavity from the operated area simultaneously with fever and loss of taste. On day three the patient was seen in our clinic; general malaise symptoms and bleeding tendency had started to decline and the patient received a COVID-19 PCR test. At day four the test resulted positive, and she reported no further complaints of intraoral bleeding. Six months later the taste of the patient was still distorted. For this patient with free medical anamnesis, we suggest that the patient had increased plasma levels of tissue plasminogen activator during the crucial postoperative period due to an acute COVID-19 infection. This led to increased plasmin levels with a hyper-fibrinolytic state as a consequence.